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Feb 12
Nine Predictions for Hydrogen Energy Industry in 2022
2021 will be a decisive year for clean hydrogen energy, with sales of electrolytic cells expected to quadruple in 2022, and industrial demand for clean hydrogen to exceed vehicle demand by several times.

Nine predictions of hydrogen energy in 2022:

1. By 2022, the shipment of electrolytic cells will at least quadruple, reaching 1.8-2.5GW. China will account for 62-66% of total demand, mainly because state-owned enterprises will strive to meet national decarbonization targets. Estimate and forecast of electrolytic cell annual shipments

2. The United States is expected to become the second largest electrolytic cell market after China this year. Us developers are set to embark on a flood of projects in 2022, as the government is poised to invest billions of dollars in hydrogen as part of its infrastructure investment and jobs bill. But with actual spending spread over the next five years, construction could lag.

3. European developers have been waiting for policy support and regulations before proceeding with their plans. With the release of a wave of EU funds and the launch of a national subsidy scheme, construction of the announced projects will finally begin gradually in 2022.

4. Multiple hydrogen companies are set to go public in 2022, with at least four aiming to go public in 2022 to take advantage of the surge in investor interest. These companies include: Industrie De Nora SpA, an Italian maker of electrolytic equipment that is seeking an initial public offering (IPO) on the Milan stock exchange, and eCombustible Energy LLC, a maker of synthetic hydrogen fuel, The company plans to list through a merger with a US special purpose acquisition vehicle (SPAC).

5. In 2022, 22 countries will adopt hydrogen strategies. In 2021, the number of countries implementing hydrogen strategies has doubled, from 13 to 26. While not all roadmaps are created equal, hydrogen strategies in the United States, Brazil, India and China, once published, could redraw the global hydrogen blueprint -- if by policies that promote clean hydrogen use in promising industries.

6. Carbon pricing will be key to growing demand for clean hydrogen. In the long run, national and corporate net zero emissions targets in 2022 will drive more demand for clean hydrogen than carbon pricing. With low prices and free distribution diluting the impact of carbon pricing, the construction of hydrogen projects will show the pursuit of emission reduction targets.

7. Heavy industry is likely to become a major end-use of hydrogen. By 2022, five industries -- steel, ammonia, methanol, chemicals and refining -- will use more clean hydrogen than the world's 51,000 hydrogen vehicles combined.

8. More green ammonia projects will be announced in 2022. Until hydrogen pipelines become viable, ammonia will help companies transport large quantities of green molecules. A supply chain has been established to transport ammonia, which can easily be used for hydrogen exports. BNEF expects that as companies take advantage of this relative maturity.

9. Alkaline electrolytic cells will occupy more market share than other technologies. Currently, the two most mature technologies for producing green hydrogen are alkaline electrolysis (AWE) and proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolysis. BNEF expects alkaline cells to account for 75-78% of shipments in 2022, higher than in 2020-21. This is because alkaline electrolysis equipment is cheaper and better suited for large projects, more of which are due to start construction in 2022.
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